Who’s in to win, and who’s in without a snowball’s chance in hell? The 2008 election is a year and a half away, but the race is in full effect, and the After W staff has once again handicapped the Democratic field (previous rankings in parentheses)…

1. Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York Senator (1)

The Hillary Clinton money machine rolls on, methodically stockpiling both operatives and cash. The endorsement of Tom Vilsack will help her in Iowa, although the fact that he never polled well there in the first place is a telling sign. The clear frontrunner handled the “Hillary 1984” video about as well as one could (she didn’t have its creator offed… yet).

2. Barack Obama, Illinois senator (2)

The usual pattern is that an upstart candidate like Barack Obama gets the Messiah treatment from the media, only to be torn apart once he becomes a true contender. The media’s obsession with Clinton has buffered Barack Obama somewhat, but he isn’t trending all that positively either. Could the luster be wearing off? Ever so slightly?

3. John Edwards, former North Carolina Senator (4)

Making good progress connecting with people, seemingly offering more substance than his chief competition. Polls show him leading in Iowa where he needs a win, and making up ground in New Hampshire as well. The story of his wife, Elizabeth, battling cancer only showcased his family as a true team, despite some pundits’ cries for them to call the campaign off.

4. Al Gore, former Vice President of the United States (3)

Still within striking distance at a moment’s notice, but with Al Gore, one gets the impression he’s using the possibility of entering the race as a means of garnering attention and leverage in his ongoing battle against global warming. He’s too smart not to exploit this, and if it is his primary motivation, we still laud every moment of his efforts.

5. Bill Richardson, New Mexico Governor (5)

This isn’t the NCAA Tournament. When the media is calling you a sleeper, that’s generally not a good sign. There’s no doubt he’d compete well against anyone in the GOP field, but Bill needs to pick it up, and quick.

6. Chris Dodd, Connecticut Senator (6)

A distinguished, affable fellow - one with the best hair in politics, no less - who really classes up the race. It won’t get Chris Dodd many votes against the heavyweights ahead of him, but his presence is a boost for the party.

7. Joe Biden, Delaware Senator (9)

The good news: Joe Biden is the big mover and shaker this time around, having leapfrogged two candidates! The bad news: look down who he jumped. Oh well.

The Senate passing its Iraq war resolution nonetheless means Biden’s stock rises. He has no chance, but it’s a start.

8. Dennis Kucinich, Ohio Congressman (7)

Not seeing the same kind of support as he did last time around. Which is too bad, because even that wasn’t all that much.

9. Mike Gravel, former Alaska Senator (8)

Our dark-horse pick to take over the 7th spot next time. Watch.

FINISHED/UNRANKED: Al Sharpton, Tom Vilsack, Evan Bayh, Wesley Clark, John Kerry.

Who’s hot? Who’s not? Who’s personal life just keeps getting more interesting, and who can’t buy media coverage to save their life? The 2008 election may be 18 months away, but the race is in on. We’ve assessed the Democratic candidates and now, for the first time, we’re moving on to the even more wide open GOP field…

1. Rudy Giuliani, former New York City Mayor

The negative stories are beginning to flow, ladies and gentlemen, but his numbers stay high. Either the public simply doesn’t care about Rudy’s… shall we say, interesting personal life or they’re not paying attention.

One thing’s for sure: Every week Rudy Giuliani maintains a huge lead on John McCain makes it seem like a victory is a given and makes it tougher for anyone else to raise money against him. When’s he going to Iowa, though? Shouldn’t someone at his campaign HQ get on that?

2. John McCain, Arizona Senator

John McCain has a long way to go (though his NCAA picks weren’t as bad as we predicted). Something about his efforts so far seems forced, uninspiring. Of course, he’s still much more of an establishment candidate than the guy ahead of him, even if the GOP base is bored with him (the 2003 version of McCain would be a lock today). Still, he has a lot of things going for him, and a strong first debate effort against Giuliani could close the current gap considerably.

3. Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor

The Mitt Romney campaign is somewhat of an enigma. Raising tons of money, scoring allies all over the place to back him, yet not gaining much in the way of traction among mainstream GOP voters. It all comes down to whether he can win New Hampshire and make it to February 5.

4. Tommy Thompson, former Wisconsin Governor

The man’s strategy is a good one. Focus all efforts on Iowa and try to win that first caucus, becoming the popular, mid-American alternative to the three frontrunners. Hey, it’s good enough for fourth in our rankings - but can he raise enough cash to make it happen? That;s another story.

5. Fred Dalton Thompson, former Tennessee Senator

Not sure what it says about the rest of the folks in this race that Fred Thompson merely mulling a run has him comfortably in contention for the Republican nomination. There’s already a sizable movement to draft him (see below). We still think an all-Law & Order, Sam Waterston-Thompson ticket would be tough to beat.

6. Sam Brownback, Kansas Senator

Any talk about Fred Thompson or Newt Gingrich kills Sam Brownback. Not that we’re complaining. With this twit, less is more. And with another Thompson (Tommy) now going full-bore in Iowa as well, the Brownback campaign could come to a screeching halt really fast.

7. Duncan Hunter, California Congressman

An enormously popular U.S. Representative who has served California’s 52nd district with distinction for 26 years. That will be it, though. He just can’t get traction in this race.

8. Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas Governor

A decent guy having trouble getting noticed in a large field. Guess America isn’t ready for another Arkansas governor (from Hope, believe it or not) in the White House. Either that or America just doesn’t heart Huckabees. Too much? Okay, sorry. Moving on.

9. Jim Gilmore, former Virginia Governor

We’re guessing his days are numbered. A hunch.

10. Tom Tancredo, Colorado Congressman

No matter how much it riles up some Republicans, immigration alone isn’t enough of an issue to get you noticed in a national campaign.

11. Ron Paul, Texas Congressman

Two first names. Always the kiss of death. That and never having renounced one’s membership in the Libertarian Party.

UNRANKED: Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel (although a sudden entry into the race from either means a berth in our top five).

The U.S. Senate went on record for the first time Tuesday in favor of a withdrawal date from Iraq, with Democrats squeaking out the votes they needed to formally rebuff George W. Bush’s disastrous Iraq war policy.

By a vote of 51-47, the Senate rejected Republican efforts to strip any mention of a withdrawal date from a key military spending bill.

The legislation will now move forward with a provision to begin a gradual withdrawal of American troops from Iraq within 120 days of the measure’s enactment, with a non-binding goal of pulling out by March 31, 2008.

“When it comes to the war in Iraq, the American people have spoken, the House and Senate have spoken,” said Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate. “Now, we hope the president is listening.”

According to the Honolulu Advertiser, 48 Democrats and independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont were joined by two Republicans, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Gordon Smith of Oregon, in voting for the measure. Opposed were 46 Republicans and Connecticut Independent Joe Lieberman.

Last Friday, in a huge victory (if only symbolic) for Nancy Pelosi and the new Democratic majority, the House voted 218 to 212 for a binding measure requiring most troops be brought home by September 2008.

A few minutes after the vote in the Senate, the White House repeated its vow to veto any legislation containing a withdrawal date. The Senate’s actions increase the likelihood that Congress and Bush will engage in a confrontation over Iraq war policy - specifically its financing.

The outcome of the Senate vote took both parties by surprise. Republicans were stung by the defection of Hagel, who has not in the past supported a timetable for withdrawal (although he is his party’s most outspoken critic of the Iraq war in Congress).

“There will not be a military solution to Iraq,” Hagel said. “Iraq belongs to the 25 million Iraqis who live there. It doesn’t belong to the United States. Iraq is not a prize to be won or lost.”

The Democrats also gained the vote of Senator Ben Nelson, a Nebraska Democrat, who voted against a withdrawal date just two weeks ago.

“People want our troops home,” Nelson said.

The Senate vote was seen as a victory for Democrats, including Harry Reid and Joe Biden (pictured below) if only because the GOP already agreed to not block the bill by mounting a filibuster that requires 60 votes to overcome.

Republican leaders have said they preferred to allow Bush to veto the bill, rather than use procedural maneuvers to block the measure, which would provide $122 billion for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Continue reading in the New York Times …

Amid a growing clamor for his resignation, Alberto Gonzales acknowledged Friday his confusion about his own role in firing eight U.S. attorneys.

But according to the New York Times, the Attorney General doesn’t “recall being involved in deliberations” over which prosecutors would be ousted.

“I believe in truth and accountability and every step that I’ve taken is consistent with that principle,” Alberto Gonzales said. “I am fighting for the truth as well.”

Gonzales, who George W. Bush continues to stand by, said he had his former chief of staff, Kyle Sampson (pictured) coordinated performance reviews for the 93 U.S. attorneys “to see where changes might be appropriate.”

“I signed off on the recommendations and signed off on the implementation plan, and that’s the extent of my involvement,” he told reporters after a holding a round-table discussion in the U.S. attorney’s office in Washington with state and federal law enforcement officials.

Sampson, testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, contradicted Gonzales’ earlier accounts of not being involved in the decision-making.

Calling them inaccurate, Sampson said he and Gonzales had talked several times about the firings and the process for carrying them out.

Continue reading in the Washington Post …

With the rise of MySpace, YouTube and thousands of political blogs across the virtual landscape, and the real power of online marketing finally being realized on a large scope, candidates in the 2008 presidential election are understandably wasting no time trying to boost their Internet profiles.

With this in mind, Brian Easter has put together rankings of how the top three Democrats and Republicans are doing, as of March 25, in the trendy realms of MySpace, Alexa and Google…

MYSPACE FRIENDS
Barack Obama: 80,339
Hillary Clinton: 31,111
John Edwards: 15,793

Mitt Romney: 2,751
John McCain: 2,423
Rudy Giuliani: 1,469

ALEXA RANKING
Barack Obama: 11,246
Hillary Clinton: 17,417
John Edwards: 30,504

Mitt Romney: 114,000
Rudy Giuliani: 125,759
John McCain: 134,608

GOOGLE PAGERANK / INBOUND LINKS
Barack Obama: 6 / 7,130
John Edwards: 6 / 5,050
Hillary Clinton: 6 / 3,330

Rudy Giuliani: 6 / 1,750
Mitt Romney: 3 / 1,900
John McCain: 2 / 1,950

Conclusion: Democratic candidates are more web-savvy, as are Democratic voters. Of course, this has been the case since back when Al Gore invented the Internet, and they’ve still dropped back-to-back races to George W. Bush (a man who thinks there are multiple Internets).

So it means little. Howard Dean would have won in a landslide in 2004, the way Barack Obama is doing now, and all it got him a fairly quick exit from the race in the end. It wasn’t all a waste, though - Dean showed everyone the power of grassroots, web-based organizing and fundraising.

We’ll see who catches on going forward, and whether it translates into votes this time around. John McCain had better get it together, though. PageRank 2? Come on, John. Even we’re a 4.

Two recent polls of Iowa residents show former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continues to hold an edge in the leadoff nominating state, the Des Moines Register reports.

John Edwards has maintained his slender advantage even amid news that his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, has experienced the return of her cancer.

Also, one-time presidential candidate and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack officially endorsed the frontrunner, Sen. Hillary Clinton, Monday.

The results of a University of Iowa poll, conducted March 19-25, surveying 206 likely Democratic caucus-goers, with margin of error of +/- 6 percent:

• John Edwards: 33 percent
• Hillary Rodham Clinton: 31 percent
• Barack Obama: 19 percent
• Undecided: 11 percent

All others are in low single digits.

A Zogby poll, taken Monday, surveying 506 likely Democratic caucus-goers, with margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, arrived at the following:

• John Edwards: 27 percent
• Hillary Rodham Clinton: 25 percent
• Barack Obama: 23 percent
• Undecided: 15 percent

All others are in low single digits.

For Edwards, who finished second to John Kerry in Iowa in 2004 and pretty much has to win the state in 2008, the results are very encouraging, especially given last weekend’s developments.

With a win in Iowa, he could build on that early momentum and do well with his strong union support in Nevada, which might generate hope in New Hampshire. He would then surely do well in his native South Carolina, and possibly many other states in the looming February 5 mega-primary.

It would be a potentially fatal blow if he failed to win Iowa, however. The series of events he needs to set in motion to have a chance in the 2008 election depends entirely on this victory.

As for Barack Obama, a third-place finish in Iowa historically nets enough interest and support to carry on. But his trend line isn’t moving in the positive direction. He’s drawing crowds, but so far, not their support.

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, leads nationally and is in a virtual dead heat here. With a win, she might be able to quickly roll up the nomination the way John Kerry did after his victory in 2004. Stay tuned.

Democratic presidential contender Hillary Rodham Clinton has agreed to help the one-time candidate who endorsed her on Monday, as he seeks to retire a campaign debt of more than $400,000.

According to the Associated Press, Clinton spokesman Mark Daley said he was uncertain how Clinton would go about raising money for Tom Vilsack, but he conceded that at some point she would have to contact supporters.

Tom Vilsack and his wife, Christie, officially endorsed Clinton in her bid for the Democratic nomination at an Iowa news conference Monday.

Daley said there was no connection between the fundraising and endorsement.

“There was no quid pro quo,” Daley said. “They have a long history, and if she could be helpful she wants to be helpful.”

The help for Vilsack comes as one of Clinton’s top supporters in the early primary state of New Hampshire disputed reports of another promise in exchange for an endorsement.

Bill Shaheen said that suggestions he withheld his endorsement of Hillary Clinton until he was promised an ambassadorship were wrong.

“Did she promise (an ambassadorship)? No,” Shaheen said. “That’s not how I work. I don’t think [Hillary Clinton] is thinking that far down the road, and I would be disappointed if she was.”

Shaheen joined the Clinton campaign last week as co-chairman of her national and state campaigns. After the endorsement, Shaheen met with bloggers and told them if Clinton wins the White House, he wants to be part of her team negotiating peace in the Middle East.

Last month, a key black Democratic leader in South Carolina negotiated a $10,000 per month consulting contract with Hillary Clinton’s campaign, a pact that came to light when state Sen. Darrell Jackson endorsed her.

Continue reading this article …

Democratic candidate John Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, who recently revealed that her breast cancer has returned, have no regrets about their decision to continue his campaign.

Strangely enough, People magazine has a really interesting interview with the two of them about it, having caught up with the former North Carolina Senator and his wife in Santa Monica, Calif. Here are some excerpts…

People: Both your diagnosis and your decision to keep campaigning in the 2008 presidential race have been big news.

Elizabeth Edwards: We expected some attention to it, but we didn’t expect sort of wall-to-wall coverage of it. Some of that is gratifying, honestly, because it’s been a conversation about health care or about what it’s like to be living with cancer. Everybody makes personal decisions that are right for them and if you’re in political life, you’re used to having those analyzed. But the day after day after day of analysis of decisions about which we feel as secure as you can under these circumstances is actually more grueling than what today would be like without that – despite the diagnosis.

This is an intensely personal decision about how we want to live our lives. As long as it’s not illegal and not hurting anybody … Actually, we watched [ABC's This Week with] Cokie Roberts, and Sam Donaldson was saying, ‘Well, people might not vote for (John Edwards).’ And she said, ‘Then don’t vote for him! But don’t judge them on the personal decisions they made.’

People: How did you tell your young children, Emma Claire, 8, and Jack, 6?

Continue reading this article …

Former President Clinton revealed himself to be a devoted viewer of TV Land at the network’s upfront presentation, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

Bill Clinton said Friday that he enjoys “All in the Family,” “I Love Lucy” and “The Andy Griffith Show” and is catching up on “Bonanza” at night while trying to write his book on citizen activism.

“As you know, my wife is on the road, so I’m home alone a lot,” Clinton said of aspiring president Sen. Hillary Clinton.

“I’m particularly grateful to TV Land for giving me something to do at night.”

Clinton was the guest star of the network’s upfront presentation, which was very light on the typical advertising sales talk and heavy on Clinton speaking about his interests, including global warming, hurricane and tsunami relief and AIDS and childhood obesity.

Continue reading this article …

Al Gore has a plan.

What that is, only he knows.

But when he says he has “no plan to run again,” he knows very well that by not taking himself out of the 2008 race completely, he can remain in the Democratic field (if only in speculation) - and continue to enjoy the unparalleled media buzz and positive PR he’s receiving to advance his first priority: global warming.

From what we gather, most of Gore’s friends believe he will not run, that he has no desire to welcome back the scrutiny a top-tier candidate has to withstand (see Mrs. “1984,” the current frontrunner).

Assuming that’s true, Gore will not say he’s out because he’ll then lose some of the resources needed to fight global warming, maintain his role as climate change ambassador of Earth and respected elder of the Democratic Party.

Regardless of his intentions, Al Gore returned to Capitol Hill today, asking lawmakers to consider their place in history when rising to the challenge of fighting what he calls a “climate crisis.”

“I promise you a day will come when our children and grandchildren will look back and they will ask one of two questions. Either they will ask, ‘What in God’s name were they doing? Didn’t they see the evidence?’”

Continue reading this article …