With so many states coveting early-bird prominence and leaning towards earlier primaries, The New York Times‘ Adam Nagourney inspects what he believes will be the effects of a condensed primary season on the 2008 presidential election:

“For the most part, the candidates and their aides cannot quite figure out what all this turmoil means for them. The changes, are shaping up to be the most substantial alteration ever to a campaign calendar in a single election, and have heightened the volatility of the most wide-open race in 50 years.”

“Aides to the candidates said they were debating whether the changes would mean that the nominations would effectively be settled on February 5, by which point easily 50 percent of the delegates are likely to have been chosen, or whether a few strong candidates would divide the February 5 take, forcing the campaign to stretch on for months.”

“That could, oddly enough, make those fewer states sticking to later primaries vital players in the election cycle.”

So basically, no one has any idea how it will play out, which makes the campaign that much more interesting. Imagine if the current Democratic field were to be shaken up by the entry of Al Gore.

In any event, the early primary craze is the latest trend of the national parties’ losing influence over the nominating process.

If only it all came down to a floor fight like on Season 6 of The West Wing, where back-room dealings and a last-ditch, impassioned plea secured the nomination for Matt Santos in the waning moments of the convention.

Don’t bet on anything like that happening in 2008. It would be extremely unlikely under normal circumstances, let alone with the current rush of states angling for February 5 primary dates.

What’s more, a Democratic initiative to force states and candidates to abide by the calendar, with threats of refusing to seat delegates that defy its rules, seems doomed to fail. Candidates and states say they will ignore it. That’s pretty much that.

Meanwhile, Republican National Committee co-chairman Mike Duncan offered a different prediction on C-Span of how primary front-loading could influence the field of candidates — and suggested (what else) a potential convention floor fight. Imagine that!

Here’s his take as it pertains to the GOP field:

“Fifty-three percent of the Republican delegates would be chosen if all the states do everything that has been reported by February 5, and it would be a national primary. Now that raises some interesting questions. Does that mean that one person will come out of a national primary as the nominee? I am not sure that is the case.”

“Does it affect the strategy of the candidates? Certainly, it affects the strategy of the candidates… They have to raise a lot of money to compete. They have to fight this war on many fronts. You know, California is talking about changing. Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, just so many different states and how are you gong to do that?”

“You still have New Hampshire and Iowa that will play a role. And New Hampshire has the ability to move even into 2007 if necessary. I suspect that we are going to be seeing Christmas commercials for this next Presidential primary. So it does affect us all.”