New Hampshire Poll Shows Hillary in Front; Edwards, Obama Also Rate Strongly

Franklin Pierce College has released its first poll out of New Hampshire for the year. Since it is the first poll, there’s no way to tell who’s trending which way. But it’s interesting nonetheless.

The poll, conducted from March 7-March 11, assumes Al Gore is not in the race and contains a 4.9 percent margin of error:

Hillary Clinton: Leading the Polls

  • Hillary Rodham Clinton: 35 percent
  • Barack Obama: 26 percent
  • John Edwards: 18 percent
  • Bill Richardson: 3 percent
  • Dennis Kucinich: 2 percent
  • Joe Biden: 1 percent
  • Other: 2 percent
  • Undecided: 12 percent

All we have to say is, poor Chris Dodd.

Now, onto some actual armchair analysis. The data is intriguing on several levels, perhaps most notably in terms of name recognition. Edwards and Obama (98 and 96 percent) are enjoying enjoying equal or near-equal name recognition to Clinton (100 percent) in the Granite State.

The net favorability (percent of respondents with favorable opinions minus those with unfavorable opinions) scores among the top three candidates looks like this:

  1. Barack Obama: 67 (78-11)
  2. John Edwards: 66 (78-12)
  3. Hillary Clinton: 55 (74-19)

This confirms what many have been fretting about Hillary’s polarizing impact, but apparently, it’s not enough to cost her the lead (and a comfortable one at that) in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Furthermore, poll numbers indicate that Clinton trails Obama as the second choice for Edwards supporters, but holds a narrow plurality as the second choice of Obama and Gore supporters (the former vice president, who is not presently running in the 2008 election, is still a big enough factor to warrant inclusion in several questions).

Also notable is the fact that among current Hillary Clinton supporters, Barack Obama leads second place voting by a sizable margin.

In conclusion, and on a very basic level, this polling shows Hillary Clinton ahead in New Hampshire, though due to name recognition and not by all that much overall. It also suggests that an Edwards or Obama win in Iowa would make this race a lot more interesting. Of course, that actually happening is a different matter entirely.

 

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