John Edwards and the 15 Percent Treshold

It was not a lack of cash nor his wife Elizabeth’s cancer that forced John Edwards out of the race. It was unyielding mathematics.

The big question is who his supporters are now likely to back, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. The even bigger question is how Edwards’ exit upsets calculations of the mechanics of winning delegates.

Florida’s results show the importance of the 15 percent threshold.

Under the rules of the Democratic party, candidates must garner 15 percent in a primary to gain delegates to the convention.

As John Edwards‘ support eroded, squeezed by Clinton’s machine and Obama’s insurgent candidacy, polls showed him slipping.

Failure to win 15 percent would thwart any plan to accumulate delegates and remain a power broker at August’s convention.

John Edwards Bows Out

John Edwards abandoned his bid for the White House in New Orleans, La., just over 13 months after he launched it in that very city.

Although the Florida primary was stripped of its importance, Edwards would have failed to pick up a single delegate despite winning 14.4 percent of the vote, behind Clinton’s 49.7 percent and Obama’s 33 percent.

Instead, Edwards’ votes would have been discounted.

  1. In Florida, that would have favored Clinton, who won the largest proportion of votes and so would have received the bulk of delegates.
  2. Had Edwards topped 15 percent, it would have hurt Clinton.
  3. Thus, Edwards’s sub-15 result were widespread on Super Tuesday, Clinton would benefit. In that case, Edwards’s exit helps Obama.
 

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