A Super Tuesday Map, and Super Tuesday Math

Tomorrow is the big day. Super-super Tuesday.

On the GOP side, John McCain is expected to lock up the nomination, while on the Democratic side, Barack Obama has closed Hillary Clinton’s huge leads in national polls and those in many individual states.

A Real Clear Politics average of seven national polls shows Obama only down 4 with one day to go - an amazing feat. But polls, as we’ve seen thus far, mean little - and he must pass Hillary to actually win the nomination.

Democratic delegates are allotted proportionately, not winner-take-all. This cuts both ways for Barack Obama. It will be hard for Clinton to put him away, even if she wins, say, 15 of the 22 states in play Tuesday.

However, it makes him catching up to Hillary’s lead - already significant due to her edge in superdelegates - that much more difficult after Tuesday.

Super Tuesday

Designated in green, 22 states hold Democratic primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, February 5. The Republican docket differs only slightly.

Recent polling has shown most states leaning towards Clinton, but public opinion shifts so fast, and it appears Obama went from huge underdog to slight underdog in a matter of days. It should be amazing to watch.

As for what’s next, if neither Clinton or Obama drops out? States voting later in February appear in yellow, with March primaries in light blue.

 

Leave a Comment