Three Factors to Watch in Texas, Ohio Primaries
Barack Obama’s resounding win in Wisconsin Tuesday was the latest in a series of wins in which he blew away expectations - after trailing in January.
It raises the possibility that he can follow the same path in some or all of the March 4 states - Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.
What do the two campaigns - heading in opposite directions - have planned in terms of March 4 strategy, with many delegates still at stake?
In the Lone Star State, Obama begins with strong base of African-American voters, while Clinton enjoys the same among the Hispanic population.
Obama noted in Houston Tuesday night that early voting has already begun in the state and he urged the crowd to start voting immediately.
He also implored the crowd to make sure to attend the caucuses after voting earlier in the day, a nod to Texas’ hybrid, uniquely complex contest.

Also, Texas delegates are not awarded along congressional district lines, but on state senate districts. The Illinois senator could snag more delegates than expected via big wins in areas like inner-city Houston and liberal Austin.
Three pivotal factors to watch in Texas:
1. Pre-determined, disproportional allocations shapes up well for districts that, at least in theory, will go for Obama. Edge: Barack
2. Clinton may downplay caucuses, but the results show they do matter. A unique format like Texas’ doesn’t help her. Edge: Barack
3. As an After W contributor living in Texas tells us, it’s a state with two parties: conservatives and conservative Democrats. Obama is not only less known than Clinton (still), but more liberal. Edge: Hillary
At least on paper, Ohio looks it works better for Hillary Clinton.
At a glance: Eight million voters - farmers, factory workers, and white-collar professionals - six large cities, 20+ midsize towns, 50+ rural counties.
Ohio has been hit hard economically from the ’70s on, with once-formidable manufacturing sectors seeing plant after plant close or move overseas.The Buckeye State lacks a broad number of white, affluent liberals - the types who lifted Obama to victories in Connecticut or Maryland.
In Ohio, affluent whites tend to be Republican.
Still, Ohio has positives for Clinton’s rival — college students (125,000+), and twice the percentage of African Americans than Wisconsin.
Through last weekend, Barack Obama was outspending Clinton 3-to-1 in the state’s Northeast quadrant, where a large share of Democrats live.
Three pivotal factors to watch in Ohio:
1. When Obama visits a state, his numbers rise. Plan and simple. The debate last night didn’t halt his momentum as Clinton might have hoped, and he has time to spend in Ohio leading up to March 4. Edge: Barack
2. Registration closed on February 4 (pre-Obama win streak) and absentee voting has been underway for some time. Edge: Hillary
3. Ohio is an open primary, meaning independents can vote, and we know how that’s worked so far in this year of record turnout. Edge: Barack
In conclusion, Hillary Clinton’s campaign isn’t finished, but it’s losing steam. It will be a tall order to stop the bleeding in the next 10 days.

NATIONAL



