March 4 Primary Facts, Trends & Predictions

Sen. Hillary Clinton must win today’s contests in Texas and Ohio, even her supporters say, if she is to continue competing with Sen. Barack Obama.

The question is, will she pass these huge tests? Here’s a list of what to look for in each of today’s races - R.I. and Vermont are also voting - and our predictions:

OHIO
State bird: Cardinal
Chief exports: Blue-collar cities, Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, LeBron James
Democratic delegates at stake: 141, awarded proportionally based on congressional districts
Open primary: Yes
Weather: A wintry mess, with the northern part of the Buckeye State under an advisory as freezing rain is predicted for afternoon and evening hours, possibly changing to snow as the day winds down
Most recent polling: Breaking slightly towards Clinton
Prediction: We don’t base too much on polls, but it’s telling that Barack Obama’s surge - which brought him from 10-20 points down to within striking distance - appeared to stop a few days ago. His ground troops will keep it close, but this was the longest shot for him since Feb. 5, and Clinton will take it by 5 percent.

Barack AttackTexasHillary Rodham ClintonOhio

TEXAS
State bird: Mockingbird
Chief exports: Football, oil, cattle, Republicans
Democratic delegates at stake: 141, allocated proportionally based on the state’s congressional districts, and via a unique Texas primary/caucus hybrid in which citizens may vote early in the day, then caucus later
Open primary: Yes
Weather: Mostly sunny, in the 60s-70s, in Brownsville, Dallas, Austin, Amarillo, El Paso, San Antonio and Houston
Most recent polling: Almost dead even
Prediction: In Texas, as in other states, Hillary does best with older, blue-collar, rural and Hispanic voters. This combination made the Lone Star State an uphill fight for Barack Obama from the beginning, but he’s chipped away at every demographic. Look for Obama to prevail by the slimmest of margins.

RHODE ISLAND
State bird: Rhode Island Red Hen
Chief exports: Coastline, Family Guy, Boston/New York transplants
Democratic delegates at stake: 21, awarded proportionally statewide and by congressional district
Open primary: Yes
Weather: Steady rain, but abnormally warm
Most recent polling: Small, but consistent leads for Hillary Clinton
Prediction: While the Ocean State is be a Democratic lock in November no matter the candidate, its voters are more Catholic, traditional, working-class “lunch box” Dems than progressive liberals. Rhode Island looks like a repeat of Massachusetts, which saw a Clinton win by 10 percent, than a Connecticut nail-biter for Obama.

VERMONT
State bird: Hermit Thrush
Chief exports: Cheese, fall foliage, liberal activism
Democratic delegates at stake: 15, allocated proportionally statewide and by congressional district
Open primary: Yes
Weather: Rain in the southern portion, mixing with snow as you move farther north - not ideal but pretty tame for Vermont in March
Most recent polling: Barack Obama by double figures
Prediction: To call Vermont liberally progressive is an understatement akin to calling it unspoiled and beautiful. Vermont would provide the latest huge Obama win regardless of the hype or political implications.

CONCLUSION

The demographics in three of today’s four primaries bode well for Hillary, and she’s gone all out to close the deal, vigorously attacking Obama on every possible front while simultaneously portraying herself as a victim in the media.

The statement by Bill Clinton that she needs to win in both Texas and Ohio to gain the nomination was bold, but it paid off. Dire prospects of elimination galvanized support for Hillary just as it nearly slipped away.

A little fear-mongering didn’t hurt her cause, either.

Your guess is as good as ours, but the stage is set for a Clinton comeback. If she can add Texas to what we see are likely wins in Rhode Island and Ohio, Barack Obama’s path to the nomination will be rocky and all bets are off.

 

Leave a Comment