Now What: The Math vs. The Story

By winning the Rhode Island, Ohio and Texas primaries last night, Hillary Clinton undeniably received a huge lift. But what does that really mean?

After all, the numbers are still on the side of Barack Obama. A monumental collapse is needed for Clinton to take the delegate lead away from him.

Likely to fall short empirically, she must change, and sell, the story.

When Georgia Rep. John Lewis switched from supporting Clinton to Obama, he said he wanted to be with the voters and on the “right side of history.”

Obama will bank on the fact that the superdelegates of the Democratic party are not going to overthrow the will of the people. Period.

Right Back in it

Hillary Clinton must make her narrative count more than the numbers, and while her delegate deficit wasn’t erased yesterday, she did win some key talking points.

1. She will say Obama can’t close the deal in electorally “big” states, even though he won swing states like Missouri, Colorado, and Wisconsin.

2. She will say Obama isn’t representative of the real Democratic party - the people who believe jobs and health care are the top issues.

While Clinton won more support from blue-collar voters in the March 4 primaries, her victories among them weren’t mandates - low-to-mid single-digits.

3. She will say Obama is a wild card for the November election and (as she does the GOP’s work for it) is risky for the role of commander-in-chief.

This is her most flimsy - yet possibly her most effective - argument.

In the past week, she threw the “kitchen sink” at Obama - calling out his political a$$-covering on NAFTA, his connection to Tony Rezko, and his qualifications to be commander in chief with some TV fear-mongering.

Voters who made up their minds as recently as March 1 voted about 60-40 for Clinton in Ohio and Texas. That’s not a good sign for the Obama camp.

However, none of this changes the fact that Barack Obama will likely finish the primary season with a lead in pledged delegates.

There are 12 and 33 delegates at stake in Wyoming and Mississippi, which vote Saturday and Tuesday, respectively. That’s it until April 22.

Pennsylvania, which holds it primary and awards its 158 delegates then, is the biggest prize left on the calendar and shapes up well for Clinton.

Even so, she currently trails by 130 pledged delegates, a daunting sum to make up in the remaining states with Democratic primaries and caucuses.

This is especially true as a number of Southern and Western states, where Obama has done well, are on the table, potentially canceling Pennsylvania gains.

So unless she can convince the superdelegates to jump ship, Hillary Clinton’s quest for the nomination is practically a moot point.

That doesn’t mean she won’t try to make it happen, though. Better buckle up, because this roller coaster ride could be just beginning.

 

One Response to “Now What: The Math vs. The Story”

  1. Bryan Lower Says:

    Good analysis.

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