Weathering a firestorm in March and remaining on even keel as he campaigned hard in Pennsylvania and beyond, Sen. Barack Obama is inching closer to Sen. Hillary Clinton in Keystone State polls and ahead of her in national polls.

Real Clear Politics’ average of five recent national polls tends to be pretty accurate, and gives Obama an edge of 5.6 percent on Clinton. In Pennsylvania, he’s down an average of 6.6 percent (a significant improvement) based on seven surveys.

Despite this positive surge, real trouble for Barack Obama may lie in the critical November battlegrounds of Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Florida.

Obama polls slightly better (3 percent) than Clinton against Sen. John McCain in national surveys, but these four states, all rich in electoral votes, show Clinton polling more strongly against the presumptive GOP nominee…

Pennsylvania: McCain over Obama +1.5, Clinton over McCain +3.7
Ohio: McCain over Obama +5.0, Clinton over McCain +2.5
Florida: McCain over Obama +8.0, McCain over Clinton +3.0
New Jersey: Obama over McCain +1.3, Clinton over McCain +2.4

New Jersey will move slightly into the Democratic column once there is a clear winner, most likely, but the other three should cause Barack Obama concern.

Narrow losses in Florida and Ohio kept us from defeating George W. Bush twice. It’s quite hard to stomach the possibility of dropping both of them again. Add Pennsylvania possibly turning red, and we’re potentially in big trouble.

However, move a little further to the west and we find another critical state with polls showing a different candidate demonstrating the broader appeal:

Iowa: Obama over McCain +9.7, McCain over Clinton +8.0

Even if Clinton is a stronger Democrat in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Obama may be tougher in the upper Midwest - and able to put Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, North Carolina and other smaller states into play.

So the “big state theory” may not hold.

It’s all academic, of course, if we can’t this standoff between two groups within the party. It may not be easy. If both sides think the other will “come aboard” after this contentious primary season and everything will be fine, well …

Some believe that even if Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton ran together, with the loser as V.P., as former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo suggests, we wouldn’t get a “Dream Ticket” but a “Suicide Ticket” catering simply to race and gender.

History tells us that Democrats have to put a white, Southern male atop the ticket to win. That’s the current political climate, sadly - and there are certainly those who think the venerable Al Gore should still be nominated as a result.

But decisions shouldn’t be made by skeptics, but rather by Americans who show up to vote. Substantive change is enacted by those who have the resolve and the drive to see it through. Not those defined by the past or the status quo.

We must pick the candidate who best embodies our values, hopes and aspirations, and the candidate who we believe has the judgment and character to lead our nation, rather than worrying about electability.

If Barack Obama is the nominee chosen by popular vote, delegates and a majority of nominating contests, then he is the best candidate for the Democratic party, plain and simple. It’s up to us to render all these theories moot.