Can Hillary Clinton Win the Popular Vote?

We’ve long written it off as any sort of possibility, but according to Sean Oxendine (of race42008.com and myelectionanalysis.com fame), Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic popular vote is something that could actually happen.

At least if you make a number of assumptions and estimates based on past primary states’ political geography that may or may not hold water.

Here’s where we stand: with 10 nominating contests to go, Barack Obama leads by a nice margin in total votes, 13,355,209-12,638,123 (49.5-46.9 percent).

That does not count Florida or Michigan. It’s hard to see Michigan votes in play the line since Obama’s name was not the ballot, but both were on Florida ballots (and so many were cast), so let’s look at the total with Florida:

Obama 13,931,423, Clinton 13,509,109 (a 48.5-47.1 percent margin).

Now you’re talking less than 425,000 votes, which is, amazingly, within striking distance for Hillary Clinton, considering there are some big states to go.

A Rocky Road

Hillary Clinton fashions herself a political Rocky. Does she have an upset in her?

We believe Oxendine’s analysis is quite a bit optimistic in favor of Hillary Clinton (it assumes a substantial Pennsylvania primary win and several other HUGE victories), but nonetheless, it debunks that it’s impossible to pull it off.

And should Hillary Clinton actually finish with more total votes, even if she trails in pledged delegates, where does that leave the superdelegates?

We don’t even want to think about it right now
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If you love maps, geography and seemingly endless political data and speculation like we do, this article is a must read. The Hillary-Obama race has lent itself to some great analyses, but none quite as thorough as this. Click here.

 

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