Can Obama Make it to 270?
It will be tough, but as we see it right now, Barack Obama can make it to 269. As can his Republican challenger, John McCain.
That’s right. There are an even number of electoral votes in a general election - 538 - therefore the two candidates can - theoretically - tie.
If the contenders finished election night in a 269-269 draw, it would be up to the U.S. House of Representatives to decide the winner.
And you thought the Democratic superdelegate mess was confusing.
In any case, with Hillary Clinton all but finished, Barack Obama is already looking ahead to November, he will have his hands full John McCain.
Right now, we see them in a dead, electoral college heat:
The months to come will almost certainly throw the race towards one or the other - perhaps decisively so. But here’s how it shapes up right now, in the opinion of our experts, broken down region by region …
THE MID-ATLANTIC
Barack Obama 83, John McCain 5
- New York (31): Obama
- Pennsylvania (21): Obama
- West Virginia (5): McCain
- Delaware (3): Obama
- District of Columbia (3): Obama
- Maryland (10): Obama
- New Jersey (15): Obama
NOTES: Talk of McCain stealing New Jersey or Pennsylvania is premature. If Obama selects the right V.P., it shouldn’t happen - and it really shouldn’t regardless. As for West Virginia, well, you saw the primary.
NEW ENGLAND
Barack Obama 30, John McCain 4
- Massachusetts (12): Obama
- Connecticut (7): Obama
- Maine (4): Obama
- New Hampshire (4): McCain
- Rhode Island (4): Obama
- Vermont (4): Obama
NOTES: Obama won’t coast in New England the way other Dems might, but he looks safe everywhere but libertarian New Hampshire, a state where McCain is popular - and one of only three in the whole U.S. to flip from 2000 to 2004.
THE MIDWEST
John McCain 66, Barack Obama 65
- Illinois (21): Obama
- Ohio (20): McCain
- Michigan (17): Obama
- Indiana (11): McCain
- Missouri (11): McCain
- Minnesota (10): Obama
- Wisconsin (10): Obama
- Oklahoma (7): McCain
- Iowa (7): Obama
- Kansas (6): McCain
- Nebraska (5): McCain
- North Dakota (3): McCain
- South Dakota (3): McCain
NOTES: We’re from the Northeast, and thus don’t really know what’s Midwest and what’s just West. Sorry if we put your state in the wrong category. We didn’t do it just to come up with the closest possible list, we swear!
In all seriousness, this region looks like a deal-breaker. Both candidates are competitive and likely to spend a lot of time there. We’re sure some of these projections will be wrong - but the overall closeness won’t be.
THE WEST
Barack Obama 91, John McCain 33
- California (55): Obama
- Washington (11): Obama
- Arizona (10): McCain
- Colorado (9): Obama
- Oregon (7): Obama
- New Mexico (5): Obama
- Nevada (5): McCain
- Utah (5): McCain
- Hawaii (4): Obama
- Idaho (4): McCain
- Montana (3): McCain
- Wyoming (3): McCain
- Alaska (3): McCain
NOTES: Obama has decent shot at Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and even places like Montana are conceivably within reach. On the flip side, McCain could focus on California and end the election right there.
THE SOUTH
John McCain 161, Barack Obama 0
- Texas (34): McCain
- Florida (27): McCain
- Georgia (15): McCain
- North Carolina (15): McCain
- Virginia (13): McCain
- Tennessee (11): McCain
- Louisiana (9): McCain
- Alabama (9): McCain
- Kentucky (8): McCain
- South Carolina (8): McCain
- Arkansas (6): McCain
- Mississippi (6): McCain
NOTES: Barack Obama has an outside shot at a few Southern states, and some of the more populous ones at that. But sadly, that’s all it is right now. It will be interesting to see how he focuses on this region.
TOTAL
Barack Obama 269, John McCain 269
Will this happen? Almost certainly not. But it should be a wild, historic ride in the next six months. Grab your hat and hold onto it.


NATIONAL




May 21st, 2008 at 11:16 am
Obama will win IA, NV, PA, CO, MO, MI, NM and possibly VA, NC, GA and may lose NH, OH, FL, IN and will hit 270 EV.
June 7th, 2008 at 11:24 am
What are you guys smoking? Pennsylvania?? Isn’t that home to those bitter, gun-totin’, Bible-quotin’ folks Obama made fun of during the primary? And wasn’t Michigan the state that had half their delegates tossed out? Do you really think they’re going to vote Democratic? And what about upstate New York? Sure, NYC will go Obama. But the rural areas are solidly moderate-to-conservative. Check out my website. My prediction is 172 electoral college votes for Obama to McCain’s 366. I might be willing to concede Colorado, but not much more than that. Trust me.