Will Michigan and Florida Change the Story?

Probably not enough to enable Sen. Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic party’s nomination for president, but any action by the party on the two rule-breaking states should benefit her more than Sen. Barack Obama.

The Democratic Party is likely to meet Florida and Michigan halfway when it comes to seating the delegates at the Democratic national convention.

Such a move may help Clinton close the delegate gap with Obama. However, it is still unlikely it would enable her to overtake him.

The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on Saturday in Washington to consider what to do with Florida and Michigan.

Both state parties were told that they would not be represented at all when the Democrats officially nominate a presidential candidate in Denver.

Hillary Rodham Clinton Picture

Not shockingly, Hillary Clinton and her supporters have been pressing for a compromise that seats as many delegates from the two states as possible.

About 600,000 people voted in Michigan and 1.7 million in Florida. Clinton won decisively in both states, though Obama and other candidates had their names taken off the Michigan ballot. He did appear on Florida’s ballot.

In addition to deciding how many (or any) Florida and Michigan delegates to seat, the rules committee must determine how the delegates allocated.

Various formulas have been suggested, most of which would give Clinton more delegates than Obama, who currently leads 1,978-1,780.

If Florida and Michigan weren’t counted in the race, 2,026 would clinch the nomination for Obama. The number rises if those states are seated.

Counting the two states’ votes could bring Clinton closer to Obama’s total among pledged delegates - which could (at least in her mind) then persuade superdelegates that she is the more electable general election candidate.

If everything goes according to plan for Hillary Clinton, who is pulling out all the stops at this stage, they would then hand her the nomination
.

The Obama campaign says it is willing to compromise on how Michigan and Florida delegates are seated - as a gesture toward party unity. Clinton strategists, in turn, are pushing for the full delegations’ seating.

The single biggest unanswered question, in our minds: Why are the Democrats such morons!? Could this be handled any worse? They ban Florida and Michigan for breaking the rules in the first place - yet won’t let that be that? Why ban them at all then? And the fact that superdelegates even exist - allowing candidates to make arguments for the nomination - is beyond ridiculous.

For once, the Republicans laughing at us right now have good reason to.

While we recognize the importance of not disenfranchising the Florida and Michigan voters, it’s fairly obvious Clinton only cares because she won’t go quietly and it’s the last remaining avenue in her long-shot bid for the Democratic nomination she believes is rightfully hers. It’s all a big conspiracy, right, Bill?

Really, how can the DNC seat the full delegations from states that broke the rules willingly and held primaries no one campaigned in? If no one actually campaigns in an election, it’s just a glorified name recognition contest anyway.

If Obama had run in either state, he may still have lost, but probably not by as much (at least in Florida). With the exception of Kentucky and West Virginia, he has been strong - stronger than Clinton, even! - nationwide.

We’ll never know how Florida and Michigan would have unfolded had they held legitimate primaries, but that’s their own fault. It certainly isn’t fair to count these results at full, face value right now.

 

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