Obama Campaign Predictions Surprisingly Accurate
This isn’t a new story, but with the primary season drawing to a close this evening and the finish line in sight, it’s worth revisiting. Earlier this spring, Bloomberg News got its hands on a detailed Barack Obama campaign spreadsheet.
Compiled after Super Tuesday, February 5, the document projected the results of the primary and caucus contests the rest of the way.
The campaign noted that the spreadsheet contains several scenarios, and this one just happened to be the first. But take a look at it …
These Barack Obama campaign projections were not spot-on, but they were pretty close - and within the data are a number of interesting facts:
- Since Super Tuesday, the Obama campaign only called two races wrong - narrowly giving the Maine caucuses to Clinton February 10 (he won 59-40 percent) and chalking up Indiana for Obama (he lost 51-49) May 6.
- The margins of victory projected for both candidates, by and large, have fallen short of the actual results - ultimately to Barack Obama’s benefit, given the string of routs he posted in February. Those huge delegate margins gave him an insurmountable advantage, despite several rough patches his campaign has endured since.
- The sheet concluded that Obama would finish on top, narrowly, in pledged delegates, while remaining behind in superdelegates. He has since overtaken Clinton and built his lead in the latter column, as well.
- If Montana and South Dakota fall into the Obama column today, Clinton will have won only eight of 27 races since February 5.
Basically, despite losing states they would have loved to win, the Obama campaign saw this coming months ago - and had long planned on competing in every single race, whereas Hillary Clinton, the supposed candidate of inevitability, banked on a Super Tuesday knockout that never came.
NATIONAL
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 am
I hope Hillary takes the campaign to the Denver & if in the end she is not the candidate the Clintons give a finger to Obama, the media & the DNC as they leave on a much deserved vacation. The only asset Obama brings to the White House is the color of his skin!!!
June 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
THIS IS ONE OF THE biggest scams of all time Democrat party wake the hell up
The republicans have been pushing Obama and have paid a few of our moron
Super delegates to push Obama in Don’t think that could happen well guess again it has
Do your home work it there just surprised no one caught on
So all you so smart super delegates have just sewed the middle income working class
THANKS
The minute You put Obama in John McCain will be our next president it is a 100 % lock
The Repulicans knew that Obama could not beat McCAIN BUT Hillary would clean McCains clock so so after tonight we all will know that McCain is the big winner
Democrat party was played OH by the way I have been a Democrat all my life but guess what This Nov I WILL BE VOTING FOR McCain AS MUCH that I can not stand McCain just can not vote some poor no experience guy that has no business and some super delegates that is trying to shove down my throat
WHAT I hate the most Is Hillary has the most popular votes BUT OUR STUPIT
Super delegates think they KNOW better that all of us voters so why do we even
Vote It does not matter
When the Clintons were in the white house gas was way cheaper the economy
Was in good shape no wars and I was making more money then NOW I am working my ass off and going bankrupt
Go to the street and ask people I have and found at lest 80 % of today’s democrats will NOT vote for Obama most will vote for McCain don’t believe it go out and find out for your self and have you will see you been backing the wrong horse
Thanks democrats party the next four year are going to be HELL