Sen. Barack Obama still trails Sen. Hillary Clinton in polls leading up to Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, although her lead in the Keystone State does not appear to have budged since “Bitter-Gate” became a huge media story.

A composite average of seven polls, all taken in Pennsylvania between April 8 and today, gives Hillary a small, but significant edge of 6.7 percent.

Throw out the two outliers - Obama leads by 3 percent in one poll, Clinton by 14 in another - and the other seven all show 4-9 percent Clinton leads.

At the same time his Pennsylvania prospects appear increasingly slim with time running out, Obama appears to be widening his advantage over Clinton in national polls involving the two Democratic presidential candidates.

An ABC News/Washington Post survey shows a 10 percent advantage for Barack Obama, 51-41. A new Reuters/Zogby survey shows a similar 51-38 edge.

In fact, the smallest lead Obama has over Clinton in national surveys since April 10 is seven percent (48-41), as seen in a Rasmussen tracking poll.

At the same time, both Clinton and Obama continue to poll more or less even with Republican Sen. John McCain in national surveys, either leading or trailing slightly, but within the margin of error on many occasions.

Tonight, the Democrats square off in a Philadelphia debate - the first head-to-head clash in nearly two months, and one that will likely draw the largest audience of the political season to date, given heightened stakes and recent controversy.

Neither candidate was in the Philadelphia area yesterday, but the spouses were, with former President Bill Clinton campaigning in Coatesville, Phoenixville and Quakertown, and Michelle Obama speaking at Haverford College.

Sen. Hillary Clinton and her supporters frequently make the point that she is the stronger candidate in “battleground” states like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania against the GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain. This is likely the case.

We’ve examined that side of never-ending debate over electoral math, and it has merit, without question. But new polls released today in other states show the argument her rival, Sen. Barack Obama, can make in retaliation…

New Mexico (Rasmussen)
Obama 45, McCain 42
McCain 46, Clinton 43

Alaska (Rasmussen)
McCain 48, Obama 43
McCain 57, Clinton 32

Montana (Rasmussen)
McCain 48, Obama 43
McCain 54, Clinton 36

Wisconsin (WPR)
Obama 46, McCain 42
McCain 46, Clinton 42

Alaska? Montana? While it’s unlikely Barack Obama would actually win there in November, these numbers show a trend.

Rather than using the old Al Gore / John Kerry electoral map Clinton is banking on, Obama is expanding the map even in this polarized era.

Predominantly working-class Rust Belt states may be Barack Obama’s weakness, but greater strength in the South, Southwest and even out West could help him win back any losses suffered in “must-have” blue states.

This is not to say Barack Obama is the stronger general election candidate, but simply to say he is not necessarily weaker than Hillary Clinton.

In the end, it’s all academic. The superdelegates ultimately must ask, rather than splitting hairs over such figures, who ended up winning this contentious Democratic race - and who best represents our ideals and real change?

Sen. Barack Obama continues to eat away at the lead of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s in Pennsylvania, polls from Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen Reports show.

The Quinnipac survey showed the New York senator’s lead over her Illinois counterpart now stands at 6 points in the new poll, 50-44 percent.

That compares to a 9-point lead Hillary Clinton held in a similar survey released last week, and an 11-point lead in a Quinnipiac survey last month.

A Rasmussen poll gave her a similar edge, 48-43 percent.

For a broader look, six Pennsylvania primary polls taken in the month of April show Clinton leads of 3, 5, 18, 5, 6 and 3, for an average of 6.7 percent.

Polls are just polls (we’ve seen how wrong they often are), and the primary is still 13 days away, but Barack Obama is clearly making significant headway, leading some observers to think he may be planning a knockout strategy.

It helps that he’s been able to outspend Hillary Clinton 3-to-1 just on TV ads to help get his name and message out there. Obama has gotten some help from the Service Employees International Union, which is also spending heavily.

Clinton, however, traditionally does well with white, working-class voters, a group with considerable influence in this closed Pennsylvania primary.

The expectations may end up being as important as the result.

Does a win by Clinton by a close margin (say, 53-47 percent) give Barack Obama the momentum, as he once trailed by 20? Or does it mean she withstood yet another assault amid being outspent and urged by some Dems to get out?

By most counts, Sen. Hillary Clinton trails Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination by more than 100 delegates.

Yet she argues that she’s the nominee by virtue of leading in key states: “I don’t think anyone doubts that a Democrat has to have the big states anchored to put together the electoral votes needed to win,” she said.

This comment and theory are based on Clinton’s showing in the eight biggest U.S. states by population: She’s won six primaries and is leading in Pennsylvania.

But there are several holes in the “big state” theory…

• Texas’ hybrid primary-caucus system made that state a toss-up, in which Obama actually won more Democratic delegates than Clinton.
• The primaries in Florida and Michigan did not count.
• There’s no way Barack Obama wouldn’t take New York (and Massachusetts, another big Clinton primary win) comfortably in a general election.

Essentially, Hillary Clinton holds a delegate lead in just three of the eight big states, and while she is the stronger Democratic candidate in California and Ohio, Obama makes up for this shortcoming with broader national appeal.

Middle-tier states, no matter what the former First Lady says, are crucial as well and Barack Obama has been stronger there. Significantly stronger.

A map of the U.S. Electoral College system, with votes allocated by state. 

There’s also no historical indication that primary results - of either political party - translate into a presidential candidate’s general election viability.

In fact, big states are slightly underrepresented in the Electoral College system because each state starts with three votes, regardless of size.

The 10 biggest states hold 53.4 percent of our country’s residents, but a somewhat lesser amount (48 percent) of the 538 electoral votes.

George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004 despite winning just 81 electoral votes from the eight biggest states, carrying just Texas, Florida and Ohio each time.

But Bush won most of the next 17 biggest states by population, and thus more than 70 percent of the electoral votes, making the biggest 25 states a wash.

In that next tier of states, Clinton has been weak. Among the states ranked 9-30 in population, Hillary is leading in delegates in just four of them (Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arizona and Oklahoma), with four still to be decided.

Because of this, Barack Obama wins a hypothetical electoral vote race over Clinton right now, 196-176, not counting Texas (see above).

Regardless, applying primary results to the November election against the GOP is a bold task wrought with speculation and conjecture.

Only one of the two Dems gets to go up against, and be compared to, John McCain and as-yet-unnamed Vice President - and while Hillary Clinton also argues that she’s better equipped in that regard, the data doesn’t back her up.

Both Clinton and Obama are within one percent of McCain in national polls. Try as she might, Hillary is running out of ways to spin this thing.

Brace yourself for a wild ride tomorrow.

New polling data shows that the critical March 4 primaries - with the possible exception of Vermont - appear to be completely up in the air.

Barack Obama now leads 47-44 percent in Texas, as Hillary Clinton gained 1 point overnight in polling conducted by Zogby International. He leads 47-45 percent in Ohio, a shift from Clinton’s 1-point advantage on Sunday.

It’s an amazing turnaround for Barack, but that’s just one polling agency, and those margins are so slim as to be statistically insignificant.

Among seven recent Ohio primary polls, including the newest Zogby poll referenced above, Clinton leads by an average of 5.4 percent.

Among seven recent Texas primary polls, including the Zogby survey referenced above, Obama leads by an average of 1.1 percent. None of the seven give either candidate more than a 4 percent edge, and one is exactly tied.

In other words, all bets are off. Races this close may hinge on undecided voters’ last-minute decisions, as well as the candidates’ ground troops.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are going down to the wire.

The entirely-overlooked New England primaries taking place tomorrow are shaping up differently, despite being two tiny states not very far apart.

A new Brown University poll has Clinton up 5 percent in Rhode Island, while a pair of recent Vermont surveys give Obama a commanding edge.

Polling margins of error are generally 4-5 percent.

No matter how you feel about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, it’s nothing short of remarkable that we have elections this late in the primary season that will dictate the remainder of the race, and that three are too close to call.

Your predictions are welcomed!

Ah, the ever-present electability factor.

With Sen. John McCain waiting to take one of them on, debate rages on both sides of the political spectrum regarding how Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would respectively fare against the GOP-nominee-in waiting.

So which Democratic co-frontrunner is more electable?

Hillary Clinton argued from the start that she alone is ready to lead, to take on the GOP machine. Given results of recent head-to-head polls pitting her against McCain, it’s no surprise that she’s dialed that down a bit.

By and large, Democrats like both candidates and both are quite electable. But strong nationwide support and results for Barack Obama have shattered the theory that only Hillary can beat McCain in a general election.

Thus, Clinton’s new emphasis not on being electable, but on solutions vs. ideas, saying Obama’s campaign is built on promises and words.

A Real Clear Politics average of eight polls taken nationally between January 30 and now gives us these hypothetical general election figures:

- Barack Obama 47.7 percent, John McCain 44.0 percent
- John McCain 46.8 percent, Hillary Clinton 45.4 percent

Given the closeness of both possible matchups, the margins of error of polls in general, the number of days between now and November 4, and the things that could change in that time… this means nothing.

But it’s interesting that the man Clinton portrays as a novice, running a campaign short on substance, comes out ahead, isn’t it?

Poll data among only Democratic voters is equally tight. Of five recent national polls - by Gallup, Rasmussen, AP, USA Today and Newsweek - Obama leads Hillary Clinton in four, but all are within 5 percent.

In other words, they’re tied! Which we already knew!

Alright, enough about stupid polls. The actual votes cast in the Wisconsin primary today should give us an updated gauge of Clinton’s support, and possibly signal a major momentum shirt - one way or the other.

Call it a hunch, but that’s how we see it going down.

New polls conducted ahead of two Democratic primaries show the contenders in very tight races - and heading in opposite directions.

The American Research Group has Hillary Clinton at 49 percent in Wisconsin to 43 percent for Barack Obama, who previously led in the state.

Another Wisconsin poll, conducted by Madison TV station WISC, has Obama at 47 and Clinton 42, indicating the race is still too close to call.

In Texas, which votes March 4, a new CNN poll suggests a statistical dead heat, with Hillary Clinton leading only 50-48 percent.

What role, if any, the Barack Obama-Deval Patrick speechgate scandal will play today is unknown, but regardless, America’s Dairyland shapes up well for the former First Lady to end her recent losing streak.

Barack Obama should do very well in the state’s capital, Madison, which is known for its progressive politics and younger voters.

But as we know, there’s a lot more to Wisconsin than Madison.

Hillary Clinton is expected to do better in Milwaukee, the industrialized Fox River valley (Appleton and Green Bay) and in more rural areas.

This is the kind of place where Hillary’s experience - be it perceived or real - on economic issues could really deliver for her.

For these reasons, After W is predicting a win for Hillary Clinton by about 5 percent. The state’s demographics shape up well for her and she’s stepped up her campaign rhetoric a great deal in the last week.

Hawaii, which also votes today, should give Obama another decisive win. Not only is it a liberal state, but he was born and raised there!

As for the Texas primary, the recent Obama surge illustrates just how much big wins shape public opinion - and how a great deal of Democratic primary voters would gladly support either of the co-frontrunners in November.

Roughly a quarter of likely Texas primary voters say they could change their minds in the next two weeks - and not surprisingly, those people are split roughly equally between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The new survey also indicates Arizona Sen. John McCain is a clear choice for the GOP presidential nomination, with 55 percent of likely Texas GOP primary voters supporting him as their choice for nominee.

A still-impressive 32 percent percent back former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 11 percent support home-state congressman Ron Paul.

McCain is looking to the Wisconsin primary as well as Washington State, which votes today on the GOP side, to quell last week’s surge by a resilient Huckabee, solidifying his position as the nominee-in-waiting.

Despite lowering expectations after a string of losses, Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton still holds double-digit leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both crucial states in upcoming primaries:

– According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday, Clinton leads 55-34 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio.
– Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton, 56-30 percent for Obama, while men back Clinton 52-42 percent, the poll found.
– White Democrats favor Clinton 64-28 percent, while Obama leads 64-17 percent among black voters, according to the survey.
– The survey also found a formidable lead for Clinton among likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania - 52-36 percent.

The Quinnipiac University poll was taken February 6-12, after Obama and Clinton virtually knotted 22 Super Tuesday contests. However, his eight straight wins since may not be fully reflected here.

Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont hold nominating contests March 4, while Pennsylvania voters will go to the polls April 22.

Wisconsin - where Obama gave a stirring speech after winning the Potomac primaries February 12 - and Hawaii vote next Tuesday.

There is no denying that Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas shape up better for Hillary Clinton than recent states were Obama has coasted. But how much better - especially as Obama’s legitimacy grows by the day - is unclear.

That said, Texas accounts for 228 delegates, and if Barack Obama can pull off an upset, it would tilt the nomination heavily in his favor.

IVR Polls, which surveys voters via automated voice responses, has been checking the pulse of Texas voters for nearly a year, and had Obama at 10 points behind Clinton as of January 31, down 48-38 percent.

Illustrating just how well Barack Obama connects with voters once he gets some exposure, Clinton held a 51-17 percent lead as recently as December.

Also working in Obama’s favor are the complex Texas primary rules.

The Houston Chronicle points out that while Clinton seeks traction in the Lone Star State, it might be slippery footing, as not all of Texas’ congressional districts get an even number of delegates.

Some districts get more delegates if they had higher turnouts in the 2004 presidential race and the 2006 gubernatorial election.

The Chronicle says at least two predominantly African-American districts in suburban Dallas had higher turnout than, for example, two heavily Hispanic districts in Brownsville. So that’s something to think about.

Barack Obama has obtained 80 percent of the African-American vote so far, while Clinton is getting roughly 60 percent of Hispanic votes.

Steven Stark writes in his Super Tuesday Tote Board preview in The Phoenix that John McCain appears like he may salt away the Republican nomination Tuesday, as he appears to be doing very well in the South - where there are five primaries - and could win a majority of them.

If that happens, all he really has to do is win one of the “big three” - California, Missouri, and Illinois - to be virtually unassailable.

The Democratic side, conversely, is far from clear.

Once faced with seemingly insurmountable 30-point deficits in both national polls and major states’ contests, Barack Obama is surging, cutting Hillary Clinton’s leads to single digits or even within the margin of error.

As recently as Thursday, polls showed Hillary Clinton leading in 11 primary states (four of those leaning) and Obama four (with one leaning).

Since then, Delaware, Missouri, and New Jersey have moved into the leaning category - meaning Clinton is being challenged strongly in 10 primary states of the 15 up for grabs Super Tuesday.

These two rivals may well continue competing after Super Tuesday.

Also big - Obama is polling better in the major caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota. The other caucuses are less likely to be reported on as heavily by the media, and have relatively few delegates at stake.

Bottom line: If Barack Obama can win six primaries of the 15 held on Tuesday, he is in decent shape to challenge Clinton going forward - of course, it would help a lot if California were among them.

The current Super Tuesday projections:

• Hillary Clinton (primaries): Arizona (close), Arkansas, California (close), Delaware (close), Massachusetts (close), Missouri (close), New Jersey (close), New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
• Barack Obama (primaries): Alabama (close), Connecticut (close), Georgia, Illinois
• Caucus States: Colorado (close), Minnesota (close), Kansas, New Mexico, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska

Two recent polls of Iowa residents show former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continues to hold an edge in the leadoff nominating state, the Des Moines Register reports.

John Edwards has maintained his slender advantage even amid news that his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, has experienced the return of her cancer.

Also, one-time presidential candidate and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack officially endorsed the frontrunner, Sen. Hillary Clinton, Monday.

The results of a University of Iowa poll, conducted March 19-25, surveying 206 likely Democratic caucus-goers, with margin of error of +/- 6 percent:

• John Edwards: 33 percent
• Hillary Rodham Clinton: 31 percent
• Barack Obama: 19 percent
• Undecided: 11 percent

All others are in low single digits.

A Zogby poll, taken Monday, surveying 506 likely Democratic caucus-goers, with margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, arrived at the following:

• John Edwards: 27 percent
• Hillary Rodham Clinton: 25 percent
• Barack Obama: 23 percent
• Undecided: 15 percent

All others are in low single digits.

For Edwards, who finished second to John Kerry in Iowa in 2004 and pretty much has to win the state in 2008, the results are very encouraging, especially given last weekend’s developments.

With a win in Iowa, he could build on that early momentum and do well with his strong union support in Nevada, which might generate hope in New Hampshire. He would then surely do well in his native South Carolina, and possibly many other states in the looming February 5 mega-primary.

It would be a potentially fatal blow if he failed to win Iowa, however. The series of events he needs to set in motion to have a chance in the 2008 election depends entirely on this victory.

As for Barack Obama, a third-place finish in Iowa historically nets enough interest and support to carry on. But his trend line isn’t moving in the positive direction. He’s drawing crowds, but so far, not their support.

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, leads nationally and is in a virtual dead heat here. With a win, she might be able to quickly roll up the nomination the way John Kerry did after his victory in 2004. Stay tuned.