Despite declining support from superdelegates and dwindling odds, Sen. Hillary Clinton is expected to crush Sen. Barack Obama tomorrow in West Virginia.

A survey last week showed her leading 66-23 percent, and today, a new Suffolk University poll has Clinton drawing support from 60 percent of likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters compared to Obama’s 24 percent.

Clinton, for someone considered a divisive figure nationally, holds a remarkably high 70 percent approval rating among West Virginia’s Democratic primary voters.

A separate poll showed the former First Lady leading the Illinois Senator by a huge margin - 27 percent - in neighboring Kentucky, which votes May 20.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue to battle for the nomination.

Only half of West Virginia primary voters think Barack Obama can beat John McCain in the general election - though Gov. Joe Manchin is one of them.

One of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates, Manchin said the delegate numbers are in Obama’s favor, but the popular vote is important as well.

Continue reading this article …

The location of Sen. Barack Obama’s just-opened headquarters here in Wayne, W.V., says a lot about the challenges facing both the candidate and this Mountaineer community as voters prepare to vote in Tuesday’s primary.

The makeshift Barack Obama campaign office is across from the courthouse and next to a thrift shop. A hand-drawn sign covers a torn awning over its door, indicating that the storefront probably used to be a restaurant.

While Obama is ahead nationally in delegates and the popular vote, and more than a few pundits have said the Democratic race is game over, Sen. Hillary Clinton has an enormous lead in West Virginia polls thus far.

Read on for USA Today’s coverage of Obama’s uphill climb …

Heading into Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had to win big in Indiana and do better than expected in North Carolina, keeping that key race close.

Didn’t happen.

In the North Carolina primary, Obama won convincingly, recording an easy 14-percent win and a popular vote margin of more than 200,000.

Meanwhile, Clinton squeaked through in Indiana with one of the narrowest wins of the almost 50 held this year, defeating Obama 51-49 percent.

Hillary Clinton’s chances of defeating Barack Obama dwindled last night.

Based on the margins of victory in North Carolina and Indiana, Obama added to his leads in popular votes and pledged delegates. Including superdelegate estimates, he is currently just 184.5 shy of the 2,025 needed to win the nomination.

Looking ahead, there are some bright spots for the resilient Clinton campaign - but they may not be enough to overcome her remaining deficit.

Continue reading this article …

Another week, another day of primaries in the Democratic presidential race. As expected, each of the co-frontrunners had something to celebrate on this critical election day, pocketing a victory a piece May 6.

Below are some photos of last night’s rallies held by Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama - and their spouses - in Indiana and North Carolina.

Click to enlarge any of the shots of the Clintons and Barack and Michelle Obama photos, and follow the jump for many more May 6 pictures …

Continue reading this article …

The scene is Gary, Indiana, and the tiled walls of Theodore Roosevelt High School’s gym, along with its “Panthers” banners, are looking a bit worn.

Shabbiness is no surprise in this Rust Belt steel-making region that has been hit hard by economic stagnation for decades, USA Today notes.

But the capacity crowds turning out in Gary and vicinity for Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are signs of renewed political vitality.

The contentious, marathon Democratic nominating contest is now focused on North Carolina and Indiana, which hold their primaries May 6.

To win the Indiana primary, carrying the state’s northwestern region — the five counties nearest Chicago — is critical for both candidates.

The key to that? Convincing voters that you offer the best plan to survive in a manufacturing economy that has been gutted in recent decades - and in many voters’ views, thanks to foreign trade agreements.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton square off in the Hoosier State.

Given its proximity to Chicago, the region looks as if it would favor Barack Obama — but there are myriad obstacles in the way of both.

A large proportion of black and Latino voters and a heavy union presence present unique challenges for this dynamic Democratic duo.

As a result, the Hoosier State could truly be up for grabs in the first Democratic primary that has mattered there in 24 years.

Seven state polls since February show Hillary Clinton leading in four and Obama in three. Obama leads 50-45 percent in the most recent, released April 11 by Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne.

Continue reading this USA Today article here …

If Pennsylvania has given Hillary Clinton anything, it’s ammo.

She won’t go away, and will continue press her claim that she merits the support of the remaining superdelegates - and is even leading in one key category.

Sen. Clinton apparently netted around 200,000 overall votes and about a dozen delegates in this Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary - enough to narrow her gap with Sen. Barack Obama, but not nearly enough to close it.

However, those 200,000 net votes from Tuesday gave Clinton a narrow edge when it comes to the popular vote - from a certain point of view.

“I’m very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anyone else,” Clinton said Wednesday.

Barack Obama’s campaign begs to differ.

Clinton’s claim assumes Michigan and Florida votes cast for her count - but the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in those states because they violated party rules by scheduling their contests too early.

Barack Obama didn’t even have his name on the Michigan ballot, so he received no votes from that contest. Clinton won with 55 percent over “Uncommitted.”

“We think that, in the end, if we end up having won twice as many states and having the most votes, then we should be the nominee,” Obama said.

Does Hillary Clinton’s popular vote argument hold water?

If Michigan and Florida votes are counted, Clinton is ahead by just about 100,000 (15.1 million to 15 million). Without them, Obama has a 500,000-vote lead. If Florida counted and not Michigan, Obama leads by 200,000.

Clinton says she has now received more votes than any Democrat in history - another dubious claim, as voter turnout continues to soar in large part because of the historic longevity and closeness of a race she refuses to bow out of - delaying the inevitable in the eyes of many Democrats.

Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, said he doesn’t expect Obama to lose his lead by June 3, when the Democratic contests - and their increasingly negative, self-destructive tone - mercifully end.

Here are the states and dates of the primaries still to come …

• Guam (May 3)
• North Carolina, Indiana (May 6)
• West Virginia (May 13)
• Oregon, Kentucky (May 20)
• Puerto Rico (June 1)
• South Dakota, Montana (June 3)

With an almost insurmountable pledged delegate lead, Obama is in the home stretch - but facing questions about why he can’t just end this thing.

“You know the way we’re going to close the deal is by winning. And right now we’re winning. And what we’ll do is keep on campaigning in Indiana and North Carolina and Oregon and these other states,” he said. “And at the conclusion of all these contests, people will go back and take a look and say, ‘Who’s won?’”

Below is a map of Pennsylvania, indicating the winner in each Keystone State county in yesterday’s Democratic presidential primary.

Sen. Hillary Clinton won 55 percent of the vote overall, capturing approximately 215,000 more votes than her rival, Sen. Barack Obama.

A strong victory for Clinton, but still a reasonably contested race.

This map makes it look like a landslide, however - and plays into the Clinton campaign’s central argument against Barack Obama’s electability.

Aside from greater Philadelphia and Harrisburg, Barack Obama lost virtually every county in Pennsylvania - most of them by substantial margins…

Of course, the counties Obama did win are among Pennsylvania’s most populous, and his inability to defeat Hillary Clinton in some counties doesn’t automatically translate to inevitable losses to John McCain there.

The candidates are a little different, don’t you think?

Still, no Obama supporter can like the sight of that sea of light blue, indicating one 60-40 or even 65-35 rout after another. There’s a clear disconnect with rural, working-class voters in the Northeast / Rust Belt - one that the controversy over his remarks (however misguided the criticism might be) didn’t help.

What will it take for Obama to bridge the gap out there in “cling” country? Or is America simply not ready for a politician this atypical?

Last night, Sen. Hillary Clinton claimed that “the tide has turned” upon her 10-point victory in the hard-fought Pennsylvania primary.

But it’s more likely that she merely delayed the wave of momentum that is waiting to carry Sen. Barack Obama to the Democratic nomination.

This is not to diminish Hillary Clinton’s win or Pennsylvania’s importance altogether. Obama’s loss in another big state and the margins by which he lost among blue-collar and rural voters raise lingering questions.

However, as Democratic delegates are allotted proportionally according to the vote, Clinton’s Pennsylvania win does little to cut into Obama’s lead among pledged delegates or his advantage in the popular vote count.

Of course, if one counts Florida in the popular vote total, Barack Obama’s lead is considerably smaller. If you count Michigan and Florida - as Clinton aides surely will in their arguments - Obama no longer has a lead at all.

Pennsylvania win in hand, where does Hillary Clinton go from here?

So look for Clinton to head into the next round contests with the renewed big state theory - that Obama can’t win states like Pennsylvania and Ohio that Democrats will need to regain the White House in November.

On the flip side of that, Obama expands the electoral map in ways Clinton can’t. But Obama’s best strategy is to make these arguments moot with two huge wins on May 6, when Indiana and North Carolina take center stage.

It’s doubtful that Clinton can overtake Obama in North Carolina, where he enjoys a double-digit lead in polls. But the Clintons will campaign there to try to make it close - and keep him away from Indiana, where polls are about even.

Obama would love a victory in Indiana to prove he can win a large rust belt state and bolster his case that he can beat Sen. John McCain. Any victory also helps immensely in the tightening popular vote battle.

Until he posts another important victory - for symbolic and logistical reasons - the door is left ajar, no matter how small the crack may be.

Clinton will continue to challenge Obama’s electability in her argument to the superdelegates. He must erase any doubts via the only truly conclusive, indisputable means - votes. Bring on May 6.

With less than 24 hours until the polls open, the Keystone State is being buried in a last-ditch onslaught of attacks from Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as the critical Pennsylvania primary looms.

Tomorrow’s contest brings an end to a six-week primary hiatus, and with 158 delegates at stake, the Pennsylvania primary is the largest remaining for the two Democrats. North Carolina and Indiana are next up May 6.

Should Obama win the Pennsylvania primary, he would effectively sew up the nomination. But if he loses, which is likely, Clinton will almost undoubtedly soldier on, despite her slim mathematical chance of victory.

The latest average of 10 polls conducted in Pennsylvania from April 17-20 gives Clinton a lead of 5.9 percent over Obama, who has been working to narrow that gap with massive spending, even negative ads.

Obama, who raised $41 million in March alone, has heavily outspent his rival in Pennsylvania, thanks in large part to his hefty fundraising network. What’s particularly notable is his change in tone over the last few days.

The Illinois Senator, who has campaigned on messages of change and unity, acknowledged Sunday that his campaign has “elbowed back” a few times in response to criticism from Clinton, who some say is employing an increasingly-negative “kitchen sink” strategy as a last resort.

Even though he will likely lose, Obama hopes his late push will result in high turnout - especially among new voters - and at least reduce Clinton’s victory margin, making it harder for her to justify staying in the race.

Obama is expected to be in Indiana tomorrow night while Clinton’s election night “celebration” (as it’s being billed) rally will be in Philadelphia. But will there be reason to celebrate - and what kind of result will it take?

What does a “big” win for Hillary even entail? The measuring stick many use is her winning by 10 points or more. That’s at the optimistic end of the scale for the Clinton campaign, even though she was up 20 points a month ago.

Whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s primary, the process has allowed for a fascinating examination of Pennsylvania’s politics, which have maintained both practical and protectionist roots for generations.

Over the past 40 years, Pennsylvanians have leaned towards the liberal on economic issues (favoring big government) and conservative on cultural issues, leaving the state closely divided between the two parties.

The trend of the Democratic Party (at least in Bill Clinton’s tenure) has been toward more conservative economics and liberal culture. Does that leave an opening for Obama - or make his upset bid even less likely?

What’s your Pennsylvania primary prediction? Does Barack Obama have any chance of stealing this one from Hillary Clinton?

Sen. Barack Obama still trails Sen. Hillary Clinton in polls leading up to Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, although her lead in the Keystone State does not appear to have budged since “Bitter-Gate” became a huge media story.

A composite average of seven polls, all taken in Pennsylvania between April 8 and today, gives Hillary a small, but significant edge of 6.7 percent.

Throw out the two outliers - Obama leads by 3 percent in one poll, Clinton by 14 in another - and the other seven all show 4-9 percent Clinton leads.

At the same time his Pennsylvania prospects appear increasingly slim with time running out, Obama appears to be widening his advantage over Clinton in national polls involving the two Democratic presidential candidates.

An ABC News/Washington Post survey shows a 10 percent advantage for Barack Obama, 51-41. A new Reuters/Zogby survey shows a similar 51-38 edge.

In fact, the smallest lead Obama has over Clinton in national surveys since April 10 is seven percent (48-41), as seen in a Rasmussen tracking poll.

At the same time, both Clinton and Obama continue to poll more or less even with Republican Sen. John McCain in national surveys, either leading or trailing slightly, but within the margin of error on many occasions.

Tonight, the Democrats square off in a Philadelphia debate - the first head-to-head clash in nearly two months, and one that will likely draw the largest audience of the political season to date, given heightened stakes and recent controversy.

Neither candidate was in the Philadelphia area yesterday, but the spouses were, with former President Bill Clinton campaigning in Coatesville, Phoenixville and Quakertown, and Michelle Obama speaking at Haverford College.