Archive for Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday: The Web Movers & Shakers

Super Tuesday has come and gone.

The candidates pumped their fists in the air, argued over who won delegates where, vowed to carry on, and even quit the race.

But most importantly, the White House hopefuls brought searchers to the Internets! Here’s a look at their respective Yahoo! buzz

Mike Huckabee: The former Arkansas governor took several Southern states in the voting bonanza, and boosted buzz on his campaign. Lookups for “huckabee for president” topped the list of queries for the one-time minister. Does that mean he’ll compete with John McCain suddenly? Doubtful.

Hillary Clinton: The New York senator could be the first female nominee for president, but searchers were more interested in her past. “Hillary Clinton high school pictures” surged 232 percent to become this week’s fastest growing search query for the former First Lady.

John McCain: Though the Republican stalwart emerged as Super Tuesday’s clear winner, web users couldn’t take their minds off… Cindy McCain! Search demand for “john mccain’s wife” jumped 230 percent.

Cindy McCain

John and Cindy McCain topped GOP primaries … and web searches!

Barack Obama: The Illinois upstart continues to attract supporters, but he can’t seem to quash rumors about his religion. Tuesday’s fastest moving Obama search was a question: “is obama muslim or christian.” Answer: Christian. He attends the United Church of Christ in Chicago.

Ron Paul: The biggest search spike for the Texas libertarian and Internet phenom suggests a need to talk. Demand for “Ron Paul forums” hurdled all other queries to top the roster of Ron Paul-related searches.

Mitt Romney: The former Massachusetts governor, who just quit the race, saw a big jump in general searches for him this week. Specifically, a 150 percent bump for “mitt romney wikipedia.” Telling sign that after a year of campaigning, still no one knows who this guy is. Side note: if you want to read wikipedia’s article on him, why not just go to wikip… forget it.

Team Barack, Team Hillary Spar Over How to Count

Democratic co-frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have both said ad nauseam that this race is about delegates.

How to count them? That they’re miles apart on.

Their camps have spent the last 36 hours bickering over how many delegates each has. Hillary Clinton backers include superdelegates, but Barack Obama fans stick with just pledged delegates.

Even those counts vary, depending on who and what you read.

NOTE: We use CNN’s estimates for the figures at right.

NOTE: We have no idea why.

Right on Day One

The delegate-counting philosophies (spin jobs) of both candidates reflect their Super Tuesday expectations, and the corresponding results.

The reason Team Hillary counts superdelegates is obvious: they have more, at least now (they can change their minds at any time).

Nevertheless, they are counted by many news sites, and recent data shows her leading Barack Obama by about 100 superdelegates.

His camp is more specific. On Super Tuesday, Barack Obama strategist David Plouffe projected that Barack was ahead in delegates, 606-534.

Press Secretary Bill Burton later said via email: “With California not yet counted, we currently lead Clinton by 43 pledged delegates - 677-634.

Continue reading Slate.com’s assessment of delegate counts

Super Tuesday Analysis: McCain (Slowly) Pulling Away; Longer Race May Favor Obama

Nobody put it away on Super Tuesday, but a slew of victories did leave Sen. John McCain as the clear Republican front-runner.

Amazingly, a virtual draw in the Democratic race did no such thing for either Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama.

McCain has more than a 300-delegate lead over his nearest rival, former Gov. Mitt Romney, but wasn’t able to capture enough delegates to place a definitive lock on the nomination.

“We had two front-runners who couldn’t put it away tonight,” said David Gergen, a former Bill Clinton advisor and CNN political analyst.

“A lot of people thought John McCain would be able to put it away Super Tuesday. He simply did not do that.”

McCain is Pumped Up

For a rejuvenated John McCain, a win is a win.

Gergen added that while McCain “hasn’t made the sale,” he is still likely to win the nomination “because he can divide and conquer.”

On the Democratic side, some feel the Super Tuesday split - and the longer primary season that results - favors Barack Obama.

The anti-Rudy Giuliani, Obama tends to do better with increased exposure. More time to meet the electorate likely means more support.

While failing to win the biggest prizes of California and New York, Obama saw many positive trends in the Super Tuesday results, winning 13 states compared to Hillary’s eight (New Mexico is still counting).

Barack Obama also has a vast campaign war chest, having amassed more than $30 million in the month of January alone
.

“On the Democratic side, my sense is we’re going into 2-3 weeks now which will favor Obama,” Gergen said. “There is a sense the longer this goes on, the more it favors the challenger, the more it favors Barack Obama.”

Small Victories Key For Barack Obama, Supporters

Analyze the Super Tuesday results however you like, that’s what yesterday effectively came down to for the charismatic Illinois senator.

While the Western and Midwestern caucuses garnered little media attention, Barack Obama did win 13 states to Hillary Clinton’s eight on Super Tuesday. New Mexico is still being counted. Click here for the full results.

Hillary’s Super Tuesday victories include California, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts, allowing her to maintain her narrow lead in delegates despite winning fewer states. Overall, Tuesday was more or less a wash.

While on the subject of small victories (though in this case, meaningless), the City of Newton, Massachusetts, where one After W staffer resides, was split by just 17 votes (12,101-12,084) in favor of Barack Obama.

That was but a small measure of prime for his supporters there, as their man took a Bay State beating despite key endorsements.

Click the Massachusetts Super Tuesday map to enlarge…

Massachusetts Super Tuesday map

Super Tuesday Results Show Obama-Clinton Draw

After all the Super Tuesday hype, trends and speculation, the results are in and neither Democrat emerged as a clear frontrunner.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton beat Sen. Barack Obama in California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, giving her campaign a boost.

But Obama countered by winning a string of states, including Missouri, in what has been a seesaw race for the Democratic nomination.

The results ensured that the fierce contest for delegates will continue into critical primaries in Texas and Ohio on March 4.

It may even go beyond that if what has become the Democratic party’s tightest race in decades continues along this tack.

Hillary Clinton claimed four of the five big prizes in Super Tuesday’s 22-state bonanza, and also won Arizona, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Yet Obama won in more places than his New York rival, racking up victories in his home state, Illinois, as well Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota and Utah.

Michelle and Barack ObamaHillary in New York

Neither Barack and Michelle Obama, shown above in Chicago last night, or Hillary Clinton, shown in New York, could claim a decisive win Tuesday.

Obama’s narrow win in Missouri came after Clinton appeared on the brink of winning there. The outcome in New Mexico remains unresolved.

In many of the states Clinton won, particularly California and in the Northeast, Barack Obama had been surging in the polls of late.

Hillary Clinton’s ability to hold him off brought a sense of relief, but the likelihood that Clinton would emerge with a big edge in delegates dwindled, and it became obvious that the competition would continue.

Continue reading this article …

John McCain is Super Tuesday’s Only Big Winner

Arizona Sen. John McCain seized command of Republican race last night, winning delegate-rich primaries in the East Coast and California.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, meanwhile, continued to prove a thorn in Mitt Romney’s side by staging a mini-comeback in the South.

But it was McCain’s victory in the Golden State that dealt the biggest blow to his closest pursuer, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“We’ve won some of the biggest states in the country,” the Republicans’ (71-year-old) comeback kid told supporters at a rally in Phoenix, calling himself the front-runner at last, adding, “I don’t really mind it one bit.”

John and Cindy McCain

Romney Fights On

While John McCain celebrated with wife Cindy, Mitt Romney vowed to fight on - before having more nightmares about Mike Huckabee.

McCain’s wins aren’t convincing, but are still wins, and the delegates all go to the winner in many GOP races. If there’s an anti-McCain movement within the party, that movement can’t seem to pick a candidate.

A Romney win in Missouri or some of the Southern states where Huckabee did particularly well may have changed the complexion of this race, but as it stands, McCain is way ahead and time is running out.

In the only competition that matters, John McCain now has 522 delegates, more than 40 percent of the 1,191 needed for the nomination.

Even so, Romney (223 delegates) and Huckabee (142 delegates) both said they are planning on staying in the race until the bitter end.

On top of California, McCain won in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware and his home state of Arizona - each winner-take-all primaries. He also scored wins in Oklahoma and Illinois.

Mike Huckabee won his home state of Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee as well as the West Virginia caucuses.

Mitt Romney won two of his many home states - Massachusetts and Utah - as well as caucuses in North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota and Colorado.

More Super Tuesday Trends and Analysis

Steven Stark writes in his Super Tuesday Tote Board preview in The Phoenix that John McCain appears like he may salt away the Republican nomination Tuesday, as he appears to be doing very well in the South - where there are five primaries - and could win a majority of them.

If that happens, all he really has to do is win one of the “big three” - California, Missouri, and Illinois - to be virtually unassailable.

The Democratic side, conversely, is far from clear.

Once faced with seemingly insurmountable 30-point deficits in both national polls and major states’ contests, Barack Obama is surging, cutting Hillary Clinton’s leads to single digits or even within the margin of error.

As recently as Thursday, polls showed Hillary Clinton leading in 11 primary states (four of those leaning) and Obama four (with one leaning).

Since then, Delaware, Missouri, and New Jersey have moved into the leaning category - meaning Clinton is being challenged strongly in 10 primary states of the 15 up for grabs Super Tuesday.

Cordial Conversation

These two rivals may well continue competing after Super Tuesday.

Also big - Obama is polling better in the major caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota. The other caucuses are less likely to be reported on as heavily by the media, and have relatively few delegates at stake.

Bottom line: If Barack Obama can win six primaries of the 15 held on Tuesday, he is in decent shape to challenge Clinton going forward - of course, it would help a lot if California were among them.

The current Super Tuesday projections:

  • Hillary Clinton (primaries): Arizona (close), Arkansas, California (close), Delaware (close), Massachusetts (close), Missouri (close), New Jersey (close), New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
  • Barack Obama (primaries): Alabama (close), Connecticut (close), Georgia, Illinois
  • Caucus States: Colorado (close), Minnesota (close), Kansas, New Mexico, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska

A Super Tuesday Map, and Super Tuesday Math

Tomorrow is the big day. Super-super Tuesday.

On the GOP side, John McCain is expected to lock up the nomination, while on the Democratic side, Barack Obama has closed Hillary Clinton’s huge leads in national polls and those in many individual states.

A Real Clear Politics average of seven national polls shows Obama only down 4 with one day to go - an amazing feat. But polls, as we’ve seen thus far, mean little - and he must pass Hillary to actually win the nomination.

Democratic delegates are allotted proportionately, not winner-take-all. This cuts both ways for Barack Obama. It will be hard for Clinton to put him away, even if she wins, say, 15 of the 22 states in play Tuesday.

However, it makes him catching up to Hillary’s lead - already significant due to her edge in superdelegates - that much more difficult after Tuesday.

Super Tuesday

Designated in green, 22 states hold Democratic primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, February 5. The Republican docket differs only slightly.

Recent polling has shown most states leaning towards Clinton, but public opinion shifts so fast, and it appears Obama went from huge underdog to slight underdog in a matter of days. It should be amazing to watch.

As for what’s next, if neither Clinton or Obama drops out? States voting later in February appear in yellow, with March primaries in light blue.

For Obama, Super Tuesday Still an Uphill Battle

Barack Obama gained a burst of momentum from his landslide victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, plus key endorsements from Ted Kennedy and several of his influential relatives.

The Illinois upstart has won the most pledged delegates and total votes so far, but Super Tuesday poses a daunting challenge.

But Obama’s charm may not save him as Hillary Clinton carries the edge in the most populous states. The de facto national February 5 is not the kind of campaign that plays to his strengths.

Hillary in FrontBarack is Back

Obama still trails Clinton in most national polls, and four major states voting - New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut - are in Clinton’s backyard; a fifth, Arkansas, was her home for decades.

Although delegates are awarded proportionately, Hillary leads California, which has 370 delegates at stake, by a double-digit margin.

Continue reading the L.A. Times‘ early assessment of Super Tuesday

Analysis: Super Tuesday Won’t Produce Nominees

At least not officially. The race is so close in both parties that it is impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on February 5 - Super Tuesday - according to a new analysis.

More than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, with thousands of delegates at stake. But it’s possible February 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.

Why?

  • Hillary Clinton leads in delegates to the Democratic convention. Thanks separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, she has a 100-delegate lead on Barack Obama.
  • There are nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake February 5, enough to almost hit the magic number of 2,025. But not quite, even if Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama won them all.

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton

One of these two rivals will be smiling a lot more after February 5, but the other won’t be eliminated … at least not mathematically.

  • California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153) all award delegates proportionally, not winner-take-all, with most awarded according to the popular vote in individual districts.
  • There are more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake February 5, enough to give a big boost toward the 1,191 needed to win — but only if one man emerges victorious in many states.

Continue reading this analysis of Super Tuesday