Archive for Superdelegates

Five Months Later, Obama Nears Finish Line

Forty-two.

It’s the answer to the mystery of the universe, according to The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, and for Sen. Barack Obama, it’s the last milepost - the light at the end of the tunnel that is this historic Democratic presidential race.

After 17 months of campaigning, numerous momentum shifts, scandals, rules committee hearings, wrangling for support among insiders and more than 35 million votes, Obama needs just 42 more delegates.

That would finally give the 46-year-old Illinois Senator the 2,118 he needs for the Democratic presidential nomination, leaving little room for rival Sen. Hillary Clinton to make the dwindling argument that the party should choose her.

Although she may still try to halt his coronation, it appears the question of what’s next for Clinton may soon being answered: concession.

Despite waging one of the most formidable campaigns for the presidency in U.S. history, the former First Lady has simply run out of options.

The last two primaries of 2008 - South Dakota and Montana - take place today, but with just 31 delegates at stake combined, even two expected victories for Obama won’t be enough to put him over the top.

Enter the superdelegates.

Finish Line

After more than 50 elections, Barack Obama is closing in on victory.

On Tuesday, the U.S. House Majority Whip, James Clyburn of South Carolina, the top ranking African-American in Congress who has been neutral throughout, announced that he plans on supporting Obama in the race.

“I believe the nomination of Senator Obama is our Party’s best chance for victory in November, and our nation’s best hope for much needed change,” said Clyburn, the source of one of the top quotes from this year when he told Bill Clinton to “chill” on Obama before the South Carolina primary.

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Florida & Michigan: All the Delegates, Half the Votes

As we reported yesterday, the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee reinstated all Florida and Michigan delegates.

Each gets only half a vote, however, as a penalty for those states moving their primaries earlier than the party had approved (February 5).

Here’s a look at how this shapes up numerically:

  • The move narrowed front-runner Sen. Barack Obama’s lead over rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, but not by a very significant margin. Based on the DNC’s decision, she received 87 pledged delegates to his 63.
  • The committee’s ruling gave Clinton 105 pledged delegates from Florida and 69 from Michigan. Halved, that gives her a total of 87.
  • Obama received 67 pledged delegates from Florida and 59 from Michigan. Halved, that amounts to 63 delegates.
  • This leaves Obama ahead in overall delegates 2,051-1,877.
  • The magic number needed to win is now 2,118.

Exchange of Smiles

If all of the delegates from Florida and Michigan had been granted a full vote, Hillary Clinton still would have trailed Barack Obama.

But this decision was greeted by most as an acceptable compromise - as it should be, as the DNC created this mess in the first place, and changing the rules back after changing them in the first place (and no one competed in the two states) would have been absurd. Saturday’s decision was the only logical outcome.

Will the results change the story? Absolutely not. So is it over, then? Not remotely. Clinton - unhappy with the Michigan result - can appeal any decision made by the committee, dragging the dispute all the way to Denver if she so chooses.

It’s sad but true in this convoluted system that the superdelegates must end this.

After the final three primaries are held (Puerto Rico today, Montana and South Dakota Tuesday), 86 more pledged delegates will be apportioned. Needing 63 of those to clinch the nomination, Obama won’t quite get there.

A new wave of superdelegate support (are you listening, Al Gore?) would put him over the top. Let’s hope it happens sooner rather than later.

Will Michigan and Florida Change the Story?

Probably not enough to enable Sen. Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic party’s nomination for president, but any action by the party on the two rule-breaking states should benefit her more than Sen. Barack Obama.

The Democratic Party is likely to meet Florida and Michigan halfway when it comes to seating the delegates at the Democratic national convention.

Such a move may help Clinton close the delegate gap with Obama. However, it is still unlikely it would enable her to overtake him.

The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on Saturday in Washington to consider what to do with Florida and Michigan.

Both state parties were told that they would not be represented at all when the Democrats officially nominate a presidential candidate in Denver.

Hillary Rodham Clinton Picture

Not shockingly, Hillary Clinton and her supporters have been pressing for a compromise that seats as many delegates from the two states as possible.

About 600,000 people voted in Michigan and 1.7 million in Florida. Clinton won decisively in both states, though Obama and other candidates had their names taken off the Michigan ballot. He did appear on Florida’s ballot.

In addition to deciding how many (or any) Florida and Michigan delegates to seat, the rules committee must determine how the delegates allocated.

Various formulas have been suggested, most of which would give Clinton more delegates than Obama, who currently leads 1,978-1,780.

If Florida and Michigan weren’t counted in the race, 2,026 would clinch the nomination for Obama. The number rises if those states are seated.

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Don’t Expect Hillary to Go Quietly

With four more superdelegates going his way yesterday (apparently), Sen. Barack Obama is now just 48 delegates away from the nomination.

He’s likely to win about half of the remaining 86 pledged delegates in three upcoming races, so the countdown to victory is on. Right?

Hold up. If you think the Democratic presidential race is going to end at that point, or soon after, or at all diplomatically, think again.

Sen. Hillary Clinton will do anything to win. Anything.

No angle will be unexplored, no argument left on the table. This race will have no graceful bow-out, no congenial exit strategy.

Fighter

People expecting Hillary Clinton to go quietly are kidding themselves.

When she calls herself a fighter, she couldn’t be more right. But it’s as much for herself and her own legacy as it is for America. This race is like a WWE match, only unscripted. Somebody’s going to be left bloodied on the Democratic mat. No one’s walking away from the ring, head held high.

Comments and actions from camp Clinton in recent days prove beyond a doubt that the top priority is not the Democratic party. The attacks have ratcheted up, the talk about sexism and media bias reaching a fever pitch.

A former President of the United States is even espousing conspiracy theories.

There’s been talk of trying to energizing HRC’s supporters to finagle the vice president slot on the ticket, but the chances of her actually getting that dwindle with each hair-brained attack. This is about winning. Period.

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Obama to Seal Victory Next Week?

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will officially capture the Democratic presidential nomination soon after next week’s final primaries, the Illinois senator’s top campaign aide, David Axelrod, is predicting.

In an interview with the New York Daily News, Obama’s campaign adviser said that after the June 3 primaries in South Dakota and Montana, Obama will “be at the number we need to claim the nomination.”

“We’re very close now,” Axelrod said.

“When the primaries end, I think, we’ll be where we need to be. We’ll be at the number we need to claim the nomination.”

The Battle Continues

Barack Obama is closing in on victory over Hillary Clinton.

Obama is just 52 delegates shy of clinching the Democratic nomination while Clinton is 246 short. There are still 86 pledged delegates up for grabs in the remaining three contests - Puerto Rico, where Clinton is favored, votes June 1, ahead of South Dakota and Montana, where Obama has the edge.

Over 200 superdelegates are still publicly undeclared.

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One Hand Clapping For Clinton

To paraphrase the old philosophical quandary: If Hillary Clinton wins a primary by 35 percent, but the results mean nothing, does a superdelegate care?

There’s no denying that the former First Lady has posted some impressive wins lately. What she lacks is a way to make them serve any purpose.

Her wins in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky in the last few weeks have been well documented. As has the fact that she is still doing better than rival Barack Obama among white voters.

But with Obama nearing the finish line of 2,025 delegates, and with Clinton’s argument that she leads the popular vote hinging on the flimsiest of math, what would possibly cause superdelegates to vote for her now?

Out of Options

Two weeks ago, Clinton edged Obama in a very competitive Indiana primary. He blew her out of the water in North Carolina the same night, surpassing the party’s expectations even though he failed to win both races.

Last week, Clinton won the West Virginia primary by a staggering 41 percent. Yet Obama was the one who picked up 22 superdelegates - not to mention the endorsement of John Edwards - to Clinton’s four in the week since.

Clinton won the Kentucky primary by 35 percent Tuesday, but Obama won Oregon by 18 percent - and clinched a majority of pledged delegates.

Hillary continues to say she’s the more electable of the two Dems, yet in national polls, Obama leads John McCain by a slightly bigger margin - as much as eight percent, as per a new Reuters/Zogby poll released Wednesday.

Hillary’s victories may be impressive, but they carry no weight.

When your campaign hits that stage, it’s time for it to end
.

After five contentious months of primaries and a year of campaigning before that, America finally sees what Barack Obama sees: a narrow, but well-earned pledged delegate victory that will not be overturned by superdelegates.

It’s over.

Dubious Hillary Clinton Quote of the Day

“The states I’ve won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be nominee right now. We have different rules, so what we’ve got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes.” - Hillary Clinton, campaigning in Kentucky

We’ve posted a number of classics in our list of Hillary Clinton quotes, but this one is an all-timer. A rationalization in which you make up different rules? Really?

Just so we have this straight. Even though Clinton’s entire point is she’s more electable than Barack Obama… against John McCain… she counts the slam-dunk GOP states like Texas, Oklahoma and Tennessee in her favor?

What about California or New York, big electoral vote sources likely to be carried by Obama … or any breathing member of the Democratic party?

Clinton on the Trail

If there’s a wall in sight, Hillary Clinton will see what sticks to it.

Sadly, this nonsense is partly the fault of the Democratic party and the mere notion of superdelegates. Allowing the candidates to make an argument for the nomination? Ridiculous. It should be a pledged delegate race, period.

Still, what’s the point of this? Hillary’s now suggesting that the Democrats should adopt a Republican, winner-take-all system? Like them or not, these rules aren’t new! Both she and Barack Obama have played by them the whole time!

Clinton’s tenacity is impressive… as is her belief that she can have it both ways. The above quote is analogous to a baseball team’s manager saying after a loss:

“Yeah, but we had more hits… and, you see, if the rules said the team with the most base runners won, then we deserve to have won this game.”

Obama Finally Takes Lead in Superdelegates

Thanks to two new endorsements, Sen. Barack Obama now leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in support from superdelegates, by an estimate of 275-273.

This is the first time his support from party officials and insiders - who will ultimately decide this historic presidential primary - surpassed Clinton’s.

Earlier this year, she led the superdelegate race by more than 100.

Obama’s lead in overall delegates is now estimated at 1,866-1,697.

While he will fall short of the 2,025 total delegates needed to win the nomination, Obama will likely clinch a majority of the Democratic pledged delegates if he posts an expected victory in the Oregon primary May 20.

Barack Obama Campaigning

Monday, Obama took the superdelegate lead when he picked up endorsements from Maine Rep. Tom Allen and Dolly Strazar, a Hawaii superdelegate.

“Most of the primary voters across the nation have now spoken. It is time to bring a graceful end to the primary campaign,” Allen said.

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Game-Changer or Game Over?

Heading into Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had to win big in Indiana and do better than expected in North Carolina, keeping that key race close.

Didn’t happen.

In the North Carolina primary, Obama won convincingly, recording an easy 14-percent win and a popular vote margin of more than 200,000.

Meanwhile, Clinton squeaked through in Indiana with one of the narrowest wins of the almost 50 held this year, defeating Obama 51-49 percent.

Hoosier HillaryMaking Headway in P-A

Hillary Clinton’s chances of defeating Barack Obama dwindled last night.

Based on the margins of victory in North Carolina and Indiana, Obama added to his leads in popular votes and pledged delegates. Including superdelegate estimates, he is currently just 184.5 shy of the 2,025 needed to win the nomination.

Looking ahead, there are some bright spots for the resilient Clinton campaign - but they may not be enough to overcome her remaining deficit.

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Nader, McCain Girls & Recipe Theft: You’re On Notice!

A day after their contentious Pennsylvania debate, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both appeared on Comedy Central’s The Colbert Report.

Host Stephen Colbert remarked that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards - who dropped out of the race before Super Tuesday - won the debate.

In any event, Obama’s addition to Colbert’s famed “On Notice” board, where he calls out various people and inanimate objects that have drawn his ire, got us thinking of all the stuff we’d like to put on notice lately.

Thanks to this terrific On Notice board generator, we were able to!

  1. The McCain Girls were outed as a hoax. Which is funny, but also sad, as we were hoping they really were that unfunny.
  2. Forget rural Pennsylvania voters clinging to guns or religion… how effing annoying is it when your socks stick to the rest of your clothes when you take them out of the dryer?
  3. Ah, bad credit home loans. Two years ago, a gateway to homeownership, now the scourge of the financial world. Way to get greedy and screw over the whole country, Florida mortgage brokers.
  4. The 27 million (to date) Democratic primary voters only represent 3,253 of the 4,049 delegates to the convention. The 796 “superdelegates” are thus 33,913 times more important than you. Let’s hear it for democracy!
  5. Not only were George Stephanopoulos’ debate questions dreadful, but his name is so hard to spell, it costs us valuable blogging time daily.
  6. As liberals, the obligatory remarks about Ralph Nader costing Al Gore the White House in 2000 will surface from time to time. Deal.
  7. Really, Cindy McCain? The Food Network? You don’t have friends you can steal recipes from like everyone else?
  8. Forget the ’60s radical group… the ’00s iteration of Weather Underground never gets its forecasts right more than 24 hours in advance.